Forecasts with the Polynomial Regression Model in Excel
Regression analysis aims to model the expected values for a dependent variable (y) based on independent variables (x). The polynomial regression is a statistical technique to fit a non-linear equation to a data set by employing polynomial functions of the independent variable. We can use the model whenever we notice a non-linear relationship between the […]
Seasonality and Trend Forecast with Regression in Excel
In our last article, we discussed Seasonality in Financial Modeling and Analysis. We went over an example Excel model of calculating a forecast with seasonality indexes. Today we will use regression analysis in Excel to forecast a data set with both seasonality and trend. Let’s look at the quarterly sales revenue of the electronic cameras […]
Introduction to Seasonality in Financial Analysis and Modeling
Seasonality is a characteristic of time-series where the data has predictable and somewhat regular fluctuations that repeat year over year. It is safe to assume that any pattern of data changes over one-year periods represents seasonality. It is usually driven by weather or commercial seasons. We have to differentiate the term from cyclical data, as […]
Forecast Sales Performance and Seasonality
We are approaching the second half of the year, and before we know it, it will be the time of year to start working on our projections for next year and the company’s annual budget. There are many complex and detailed models that we can utilize to forecast the sales performance of the business for […]
Calculate Value in Use under IAS 36
The core underlying principle of IAS 36 Impairment of Assets is that an asset’s carrying value in the financial statements of the company should not exceed the highest amount the business can recover through its use or sale. The standard applies to all assets for which there are no impairment considerations elsewhere. As an example, […]
Rolling Forecasts in Financial Planning
Let’s start by looking at why businesses need rolling forecasts. When running a business, we need to have a full view of what’s happening so that we can make the proper decisions. The best way to achieve this is to implement a budgeting and planning process. We create an expected standard performance for the business […]
Understanding The Value of a Budget
Introduction Running a business poses the threat of getting lost into the day-to-day issues the company faces. And this can mean we start to miss the bigger picture. Investing time and resources in creating a budget and a business plan is essential to ensure we form a proper long-term strategy for the business. A budget […]
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in Financial Modeling
Introduction Investors are continually evaluating different investments, trying to identify the ones that will maximize their returns and wealth. Analysts consider the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) as one of the most accurate ways to calculate the return for any investment with a value that changes over time. CAGR represents the rate of return an […]
Least-Squares Method to Estimate the Cost Function
Introduction Linear regression is considered the most accurate method in segregating costs into Fixed and Variable components. Like the High-Low Method and other methods, the Least-Squares Method follows the same simple linear cost function: However, most people consider the Least-Squares Method more accurate, as it computes Fixed and Variable Costs mathematically. When looking into costs, […]
Estimating Fixed and Variable Costs with the High-Low Method
Introduction The High-Low Method is a technique of cost accounting, which is used to split mixed costs into variable and fixed components. It is essential to note that the High-Low method is not very popular as it relies on extreme values of the population and can distort the cost distribution. However, the technique is one […]